Kalshi Bitcoin Range Markets Explained: Buckets, Settlement and Fee Math

Kalshi's "Bitcoin range" markets (series KXBTC) ask a different question from the 15-minute up/down product and the hourly above/below ladder. Instead of "will Bitcoin be higher?" or "will Bitcoin be above $X?", each market asks: will Bitcoin finish inside this price band? One event splits the whole price line into dozens of non-overlapping buckets, and exactly one of them settles Yes. This guide explains how the buckets are built, how they settle, what the prices across all buckets tell you, and what the fee math looks like when you trade low-priced contracts. Every number below comes from Kalshi's public API, taken around noon ET on October 24, 2026.

If you have not read them yet, start with Kalshi's Bitcoin 15-minute market explained and Kalshi hourly Bitcoin vs 15-minute markets. The fee background is in Kalshi fees and the break-even win rate.

The short version

How a range event is built

We pulled the two open range events on October 24. The same-day event, KXBTC-26OCT2417, closes at 5 PM EDT. It opened at 4 PM EDT the day before and had 80 markets:

• 78 "between" buckets, each $250 wide. Examples: B79625 covers $79,500 to $79,749.99, and B81625 covers $81,500 to $81,749.99. The number in the ticker is the middle of the band.
• One bottom tail, T71750, which resolves Yes if the average is below $71,750.
• One top tail, T91249.99, which resolves Yes if the average is above $91,249.99.

The week-out event, KXBTC-26OCT3017 (5 PM EDT on October 30), had 50 markets with $500 buckets. Further-out events use wider bands, since the price has more room to move.

Look at the upper edge of each bucket: $79,749.99, not $79,750. Every bucket ends one cent below the next one's floor, so there are no gaps or overlaps. Any final price lands in exactly one bucket, including the two tails.

How range markets settle

Kalshi's rules text for a bucket reads, in substance: if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 5 PM EDT is between 81,500 and 81,749.99, the market resolves Yes. The secondary rules explain that 60 index prices are collected in the last minute and the official value is their average. Checking Coinbase or Google may guide you, but those are not the settlement price.

That has two practical consequences:

1. The edge of a bucket is a coin flip near the close. If BTC trades at $79,748 in the final minute, a few dollars of movement in the average decides whether B79625 or B79875 wins. Watching a spot exchange tick is not enough. You need to think about the 60-second average, which moves more slowly than spot in the final seconds.
2. Late spikes are diluted. A one-second wick on one exchange is diluted twice: first by the index, which blends several venues, then by the 60-second average.

Contract terms for the series are published by Kalshi at assets.kalshi.com/contract_terms/BTC.pdf, the same document as the hourly above/below markets.

Reading the prices: buckets as a probability curve

Because exactly one bucket wins, the bucket prices together sketch the market's view of where Bitcoin will finish. Around noon ET on October 24, with Bitcoin near $79,600, the most expensive buckets in the same-day event were:

Even the favorite bucket is priced around 15–17¢. That is normal for range markets: with $250 bands and five hours to go, no single band is likely. The structure rewards precision. You pay little per contract, and most contracts expire worthless.

Why you cannot "buy every bucket" for a guaranteed dollar

Since exactly one bucket pays $1, it is natural to ask whether buying Yes on all of them could lock in a profit. Add up the asks and the answer is clear. At our snapshot, buying one Yes in every bucket of the same-day event at the ask would have cost $2.13 before fees, for a guaranteed $1 payout. The reason is the tails of the distribution: 45 of the 80 buckets showed a 1¢ ask with no bid. Each of those is a near-zero probability, but you still pay 1¢ to own it, and dozens of 1¢ contracts add up fast. The ten most expensive buckets alone summed to $1.07 at the ask.

The bid side tells the other half: the Yes bids across all 80 buckets summed to only $0.76. The gap between $0.76 and $2.13 is the total spread across the event. It is a useful reminder that a range event is a set of separately quoted markets, not one market you can trade as a single block.

Fee and break-even math on cheap contracts

Kalshi's series data lists the range markets with the quadratic fee type and multiplier 1, the same as the hourly and 15-minute Bitcoin products. For a taker, the trading fee is about 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up. Kalshi's fee-rounding documentation (docs.kalshi.com, "Fee Rounding") explains how the fee is first rounded up to the nearest $0.000001 and then, for accounts held in whole cents, rounded to the cent with any overpayment rebated across fills of the same order. In one of Kalshi's own worked examples, a 5.5¢ buy has a model fee of $0.00363825, which matches 0.07 × 0.055 × 0.945.

Here is what that means at range-market prices. Fees below are per contract on a large order, before cent rounding.

Two things stand out. First, in absolute terms the fee is small on cheap contracts. Second, as a share of what you pay, it is larger: at 5¢ the fee adds about 6.7% to the cost, while at 50¢ it adds 3.5%. Small orders feel this more, because of rounding to whole cents. One contract bought at 5¢ has a model fee of 0.33¢, which a cent-precision account pays as a full cent. That makes the cost 6¢ and the break-even win rate 6%, not 5.3%. Size and order type matter more on cheap buckets than most people expect.

The spread matters even more than the fee. In our snapshot, the second-favorite bucket was quoted 12¢ bid / 17¢ ask. Buying at 17¢ and immediately selling at 12¢ loses five cents, almost 30% of the stake, before any fee. A resting limit order can avoid paying the full spread, but it may not fill.

Worked example

Say you think Bitcoin will finish the 5 PM window between $79,500 and $79,749.99, and you buy 20 Yes contracts of B79625 at the 17¢ ask.

• Cost: 20 × $0.17 = $3.40.
• Taker fee: 0.07 × 20 × 0.17 × 0.83 ≈ $0.198, rounded up to $0.20 on a cent account. Total about $3.60.
• If the 60-second BRTI average lands in the band: payout 20 × $1.00 = $20.00, net about +$16.40.
• If it lands anywhere else, including $79,750.00: payout $0, net −$3.60.
• Break-even: you need to be right about 18% of the time on trades like this one. The market priced it at about 15–17%, so you only gain if your estimate is better than the market's.

You can also sell before the close, at the bid. If BTC drifts into the band early, the bucket price rises and you can take a gain without holding into the final minute. If it drifts away, the bid may fall to 1¢ or disappear.

What a bot has to handle on range markets

Range events are harder to automate than the single 15-minute market. Software trading them should at least:

• Map the event. Pull every market in the event, sort by floor_strike and cap_strike, and treat the two tails (strike_type "less" and "greater") separately.
• Compare against the settlement index, not spot. Track a BRTI-style composite and estimate the 60-second average, not a single exchange price.
• Price the whole curve. A bucket that looks cheap may only look cheap because its neighbors are mispriced the other way. Compare each bucket with your own distribution of outcomes.
• Include fee and spread in every decision. On a 5¢ contract, one cent of slippage or rounding moves your break-even by a fifth.
• Respect rate limits. An 80-market event is 80 order books. Use the WebSocket feed rather than polling each market; see our Kalshi API rate limits and WebSocket guide.
• Have hard limits. Many small positions that usually lose can drain an account through a long losing streak. Cap the daily spend and the number of open buckets.

Risks specific to range markets

• Most contracts expire worthless. Even a well-calibrated strategy will have long losing streaks, because each bucket is unlikely by design.
• Thin books on the tails. Many buckets show a 1¢ ask with no bid, so you may not be able to exit before settlement.
• Edge risk. A final average a few dollars from a bucket edge decides the outcome. Small differences between your price feed and the index can flip the result.
• Wide spreads. A 5¢ spread on a 17¢ contract is a large cost per round trip.

Where DeskBot fits

DeskBot is a trading assistant for Kalshi's short-dated crypto markets. It reads the public market data, applies the settings you choose, and shows fee and break-even math before it trades. You stay in control of whether it places orders and how much it can spend. You can try DeskBot for $1: the first month is $1, then $19.99 a month, cancel anytime. Trading can lose money, and DeskBot does not promise profits.

FAQ

What are Kalshi's Bitcoin range markets?

They are events in the KXBTC series that divide the Bitcoin price into non-overlapping bands. Each band is its own yes/no market, and exactly one band settles Yes, based on the 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average before the close.

How wide are the buckets?

It depends on the event. The same-day 5 PM EDT event we checked on October 24, 2026 used $250 buckets (78 of them plus two tails). The October 30 event used $500 buckets, with 50 markets in total.

What price is used to settle?

The simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index before the close, according to Kalshi's rules text. Exchange prices like Coinbase's are not the settlement value.

What happens if Bitcoin finishes exactly on a bucket edge?

The bands do not overlap. A bucket like B79625 runs from $79,500 to $79,749.99, and the next starts at $79,750. A final average of exactly $79,750.00 falls in the higher bucket.

Can I buy every bucket and lock in a profit?

Not at the prices we saw. Buying Yes in all 80 buckets at the ask would have cost $2.13 for a guaranteed $1 payout, mostly because dozens of unlikely buckets are offered at 1¢ each.

What are the fees on range markets?

The series uses Kalshi's quadratic fee with multiplier 1: about 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price) for a taker, rounded up under Kalshi's fee-rounding rules. On a 10¢ contract that is about 0.63¢ before rounding, which can become a full cent on a small order.

Are range markets better than the 15-minute market?

Neither is better by design. Range markets offer large payouts on unlikely outcomes and reward precise forecasts. The 15-minute market is one near-even question per window. Both require beating fee plus spread, and many strategies do not.

Risk: Trading on Kalshi involves risk, and you can lose money. There are no guaranteed results, and past or paper results do not predict future results. DeskBot is independent software and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi or CF Benchmarks. Market data came from Kalshi's public API, and rules and fee details came from Kalshi's market rules text and docs.kalshi.com on October 24, 2026. Prices, buckets and fees change, so check Kalshi before you trade.