Kalshi lists two short-dated Bitcoin products that look alike and behave very differently: the 15-minute "BTC price up in next 15 mins?" market (series KXBTC15M) and the hourly "Bitcoin price Above/below" markets (series KXBTCD). Both settle on the same CF Benchmarks index, and both use the same fee formula. They differ in how the strike is chosen, how many contracts each event offers, how finely prices move, and what a bot has to do to trade them. This guide puts the two side by side, with real numbers from Kalshi's public API taken on the morning of October 24, 2026.
If you are new to the 15-minute product, read Kalshi's Bitcoin 15-minute market explained first. For the fee math behind every number below, see Kalshi fees and the break-even win rate.
The short version
| 15-minute (KXBTC15M) | Hourly above/below (KXBTCD) | |
|---|---|---|
| Question | Will BTC be up versus the start of this 15-minute window? | Will BTC be above a chosen price at the top of the hour? |
| Markets per event | One | A ladder of strikes (188 on the 10 AM ET event we checked) |
| Strike | Set by the market: the opening 60-second BRTI average | You pick from fixed levels, e.g. every $100 |
| Yes condition | Final average at least the target (greater_or_equal) |
Final average above the strike (greater) |
| Settlement value | Simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks BRTI before close | Same |
| Price ticks | 0.1¢ below 10¢ and above 90¢, 1¢ in between | 1¢ everywhere |
| Fee model | Quadratic, multiplier 1 | Quadratic, multiplier 1 |
| Contract terms | CRYPTO.pdf | BTC.pdf |
How each one settles
Both products settle on CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI), not on any single exchange. Kalshi's rules text for both says that in the last minute before expiration it collects 60 index prices, and the official value is their simple average. One second of a wild print on one exchange is diluted twice: first by the index, which combines several exchanges, then by the 60-second average.
The difference is what that average is compared against.
15-minute: the market sets its own target
The rule for the 9:00–9:15 AM EDT window on October 24 read, paraphrased: Yes if the 60-second BRTI average before 9:15 AM is at least the 60-second BRTI average before 9:00 AM. The API shows the opening value as the "Target Price" (field floor_strike). For that window it was $80,686.76. There is exactly one market per window, so there is nothing to choose. You either think the closing average will be at or above the opening average, or you don't.
Hourly: you choose the line
An hourly event is a ladder of separate yes/no markets, one per price level. The 10 AM EDT event on October 24 (KXBTCD-26OCT2410) had 188 strikes from $72,100 to $90,800, spaced $100 apart. Each market asks whether the 60-second BRTI average before 10 AM is above its level. The tickers use a .99 strike: T80699.99 is displayed as "$80,700 or above", and the condition is strictly above $80,699.99.
The series is called hourly, but the same series also carries longer-dated events that close at 5 PM ET. When we checked, there was a same-day 5 PM event with 80 strikes at $250 spacing (it opened at 4 PM the previous afternoon) and an October 30 5 PM event with 50 strikes at $500 spacing. Wider spacing on longer horizons is what you would expect: Bitcoin has more room to move in a week than in an hour.
What the prices looked like
The quotes below are bid/ask for Yes, taken from the public API at about 9:08 AM EDT on October 24, 2026, with Bitcoin trading near $80,700.
| Market | Yes bid | Yes ask |
|---|---|---|
| 15-min, 9:00–9:15 window, target $80,686.76 | 71¢ | 72¢ |
| Hourly 10 AM, $80,600 or above | 84¢ | 85¢ |
| Hourly 10 AM, $80,700 or above | 55¢ | 56¢ |
| Hourly 10 AM, $80,800 or above | 25¢ | 26¢ |
| 5 PM, $80,750 or above | 50¢ | 51¢ |
Two things stand out.
The ladder is a price distribution. On an above/below ladder, the gap between two neighbouring strikes is the market's estimate that Bitcoin finishes between them. Using mid prices, $80,600-or-above at about 84.5¢ minus $80,700-or-above at about 55.5¢ puts roughly 29% on the 10 AM average landing between $80,600 and $80,700. The next band, $80,700 to $80,800, gets about 30%. A bot can read that whole curve from one event; the 15-minute product gives you one point.
Time left changes everything. The 5 PM market near the money sat at about 50¢ with eight hours to go, because almost anything can happen in eight hours. The 10 AM markets a few hundred dollars apart ranged from 25¢ to 85¢, because less than an hour remained. A 15-minute window that is already partly over can swing even harder on a small move.
Fees: same formula, different places on the curve
Both series use Kalshi's quadratic fee with multiplier 1. For a taker the model fee is 0.07 × contracts × P × (1 − P), where P is the price in dollars. Kalshi's fee-rounding documentation works an example with exactly this formula. A 5.5¢ buy has a model fee of $0.00363825, which is 0.07 × 0.055 × 0.945. The trade fee is then rounded up to six decimals, and the balance change is aligned to the cent for most retail accounts. A rounding accumulator rebates any overpayment across the fills of an order.
Because the fee depends on price, it lands differently on each product:
- Buying Yes at 50¢ (typical near the money on either product): 0.07 × 0.50 × 0.50 = 1.75¢ per contract. Your all-in cost is 51.75¢, so you need to win about 51.75% of the time to break even. A 1¢ spread on top makes it harder.
- Buying Yes at 85¢ (a deep-in-the-money hourly strike): 0.07 × 0.85 × 0.15 ≈ 0.89¢. All-in about 85.9¢, so you need about 85.9% wins. You risk 85.9¢ to make 14.1¢, and a single loss erases about six wins.
- Buying Yes at 25¢ (an out-of-the-money hourly strike): 0.07 × 0.25 × 0.75 ≈ 1.31¢. All-in about 26.3¢, so you need about 26.3% wins, but you lose most of the time.
On a single contract, cent alignment can round a fraction of a cent up to a whole cent, so very small orders pay proportionally more. The accumulator evens this out over an order's fills, not across separate orders.
The ladder lets you choose where on that curve you sit; the 15-minute product mostly puts you near the middle, where the fee per contract is highest. Neither choice is "cheaper" in a way that creates an edge. A strategy has to beat price plus fee plus spread wherever it trades.
Tick size: why it matters for automation
The API reports a price_level_structure for each market. The 15-minute market we checked was tapered_deci_cent: prices step by 0.1¢ from 0 to 10¢ and from 90¢ to $1, and by 1¢ in between. The hourly markets were linear_cent, so they step by 1¢ everywhere.
In practice, late in a 15-minute window, when one side trades at 95¢ or more, quotes can move in tenths of a cent. A bot that assumes whole-cent prices will mis-price, mis-round or have orders rejected there. On the hourly ladder, the far-from-money strikes sit at a few cents with a 1¢ minimum step, so the spread is a large share of the price.
What a bot has to do differently
15-minute
- Discover the new market every 15 minutes (96 a day) and read
floor_strikefresh each time. The target is a new number every window. - Track the running 60-second average near the close, not the spot price on your screen. Spot can sit above the target while the average still settles No.
- Handle sub-cent prices near the extremes.
Hourly ladder
- Choose a strike. That is a modelling decision: you are choosing your price, payout and probability all at once.
- Watch many markets per event. One 10 AM event alone had 188, so stream order books over WebSocket rather than polling each one. Our guide to Kalshi API rate limits and WebSockets shows how quickly polling a ladder burns a Basic-tier budget.
- Keep strikes straight. A ticker ending .99 means "above that number", which is "that number plus one cent or above".
- Know which event you are in. The same series mixes one-hour events with longer-dated 5 PM events, and they have different spacing and very different sensitivity to time.
Risks that apply to both
- Settlement is an average, not a print. Plan around the 60-second BRTI mean and expect it to differ from your exchange's last trade.
- Fees and spread are a fixed handicap. Near 50¢ you need roughly 52% wins just to stand still, before spread.
- Liquidity is uneven. Near-the-money strikes and the live 15-minute window trade actively. Far strikes can be thin, and the quoted price may not fill at your size.
- Rules change. Strike spacing, tick structure and fees are Kalshi's to set. Read them from the API each time rather than hard-coding them.
Where DeskBot fits
DeskBot for Kalshi is desktop software for Kalshi's 15-minute crypto markets. It runs with the settings you choose. You decide whether it trades. It is $1 for the first month, then $19.99 a month, and you can cancel anytime. Trading can lose money, and DeskBot does not promise profits.
FAQ
What is the difference between Kalshi's hourly and 15-minute Bitcoin markets?
The 15-minute market is one yes/no question per window: will the closing 60-second BRTI average be at least the opening one? The hourly above/below event is a ladder of markets at fixed price levels, and each asks whether the average before the hour is above that level.
Do both settle on the same price?
Yes. Both use the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index before the close, per Kalshi's rules text. Neither uses Coinbase or any single exchange price.
What does the .99 in a KXBTCD ticker mean?
The strike is set one cent below the round number, and the condition is "above". So T80699.99 resolves Yes if the average is above $80,699.99, which is $80,700 or more.
Are Kalshi fees the same on hourly and 15-minute markets?
Both series use the quadratic fee with multiplier 1: about 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price) for a taker. The fee is highest near 50¢ (1.75¢ per contract) and smaller near the extremes.
How many strikes does an hourly Bitcoin event have?
It varies. The 10 AM ET event we checked on October 24, 2026 had 188 strikes at $100 spacing. A same-day 5 PM event had 80 at $250, and a week-out event had 50 at $500.
Why do 15-minute prices show fractions of a cent?
The 15-minute market uses a tapered tick structure: 0.1¢ steps below 10¢ and above 90¢, and 1¢ in between. The hourly markets we checked used 1¢ steps everywhere.
Which one is better to trade?
Neither is better by design. They are different instruments. The ladder lets you choose price and probability; the 15-minute product resets every window. Either way, a strategy has to beat fee plus spread, and many do not.
Risk: Trading on Kalshi involves risk, and you can lose money. There are no guaranteed results, and past or paper results do not predict future results. DeskBot is independent software and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi or CF Benchmarks. Market data came from Kalshi's public API, and rules and fee details came from Kalshi's published market rules and docs.kalshi.com on October 24, 2026. Prices, strikes and fees change, so check Kalshi before you trade.