On Kalshi, the price of a contract is almost exactly the win rate you need to break even. Add fees and the bar moves up a little. That one idea explains why a strategy can win 9 out of 10 trades and still lose money.
How Kalshi taker fees work
Kalshi's published taker fee is roughly 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the next cent per order. The fee is largest near 50¢ and shrinks toward the edges, but at high prices the profit per contract shrinks even faster, so the fee eats a bigger share of what you can win.
Break-even win rate at every price
| Buy price | Fee per contract | Win rate needed | Profit per win | Wins to cover one loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50¢ | ~1.75¢ | 51.7% | ~48.2¢ | ~1.1 |
| 60¢ | ~1.68¢ | 61.7% | ~38.3¢ | ~1.6 |
| 70¢ | ~1.47¢ | 71.5% | ~28.5¢ | ~2.5 |
| 75¢ | ~1.31¢ | 76.3% | ~23.7¢ | ~3.2 |
| 80¢ | ~1.12¢ | 81.1% | ~18.9¢ | ~4.3 |
| 85¢ | ~0.89¢ | 85.9% | ~14.1¢ | ~6.1 |
| 88¢ | ~0.74¢ | 88.7% | ~11.3¢ | ~7.9 |
| 90¢ | ~0.63¢ | 90.6% | ~9.4¢ | ~9.7 |
| 92¢ | ~0.52¢ | 92.5% | ~7.5¢ | ~12.4 |
| 93¢ | ~0.46¢ | 93.5% | ~6.5¢ | ~14.3 |
| 94¢ | ~0.39¢ | 94.4% | ~5.6¢ | ~16.8 |
| 95¢ | ~0.33¢ | 95.3% | ~4.7¢ | ~20.4 |
| 97¢ | ~0.20¢ | 97.2% | ~2.8¢ | ~34.8 |
Read the last column carefully. Buying at 93¢, one losing contract costs about 93.5¢ while each win pays about 6.5¢, so one loss erases about 14 wins. At 97¢ it is about 35.
A real example: 265 live trades
Our own bot traded Kalshi's 15-minute markets live from October 8 to 10, 2026. It went 250 wins, 15 losses (94.3%). Because it mostly bought favorites around 90–95¢, its average cost including fees meant it needed 92.6% just to break even. Net result after fees: +$49.89. The single worst loss was −$14.23. A 94% hit rate produced a thin edge, not a windfall. That is the honest version of "high win rate" trading.
How to use this
- Before any trade, write down the price and the win rate it implies. If you can't argue you beat it by a margin, skip.
- Judge strategies by profit after fees, not win rate.
- At 90¢+, size small: a single loss is many wins.
- Track every trade. A small sample can look great or terrible by luck.
Want the math done for you every 15 minutes? DeskBot for Kalshi watches all 19 of Kalshi's 15-minute markets and only places a trade when the price clears its break-even line. $19.99/month, cancel anytime. Live calls, wins and losses, are posted at @DeskbotKalshi.
Educational content, not financial advice. Trading event contracts can lose money. DeskBot is independent software and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Kalshi. Fee figures are approximations of Kalshi's published taker-fee formula; check Kalshi's current fee schedule before trading.