Kalshi runs markets that open and settle every 15 minutes on things like Bitcoin, gold and the euro. Each one asks a simple yes/no question about where a price will be when the clock runs out. Because a new round starts every quarter hour, there are dozens of chances a day, which is exactly why they're easy to overtrade.
This guide covers what you're buying, what moves the price, and the three numbers worth checking before every trade.
What you're actually buying
Every contract pays $1 if it settles your way and $0 if it doesn't. The price you pay, from 1¢ to 99¢, is the market's estimate of the chance it settles your way. Buy YES at 70¢ and you're paying 70¢ to win $1, so you profit about 30¢ if you're right and lose 70¢ if you're wrong.
A 15-minute market usually asks something like "Will the index be above the strike at the end of this window?" Many windows list several strikes, so you can choose a question that's nearly certain (and expensive) or a long shot (and cheap).
The strike and the clock
Two things drive the price inside a window:
- Distance to the strike. The further the live price sits above a strike, the more YES on that strike is worth.
- Time left. With 12 minutes to go, a small lead can easily reverse. With 30 seconds left, the same lead is nearly locked in. Prices rush toward 0¢ or 99¢ as the clock runs down.
That's why the same "$50 above the strike" can be worth 65¢ early in a window and 95¢ near the end. Anyone trading these markets is really trading the relationship between distance and time.
How settlement works
Each market settles against the reference price named in its rules, not against whatever chart you happen to be watching. The rules page for every market spells out the source and exactly how the final value is calculated. Read it once for each market you trade. Small differences between your feed and the official reference are a classic way to lose a trade you thought you'd won.
The three numbers to check before every trade
- The price you'd pay. This is roughly the win rate you need. A 93¢ contract needs about a 93% hit rate just to break even, before fees.
- The fee. Kalshi's general taker fee is about 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the next cent per order. It pushes your break-even a little higher. Our fees and break-even table shows the exact bar at every price.
- Your honest probability. If you can't say why the real chance is clearly above the break-even number, the trade has no edge. Skipping it is the right call.
You can run all three in a few seconds with the free Kalshi break-even calculator.
Why high prices are tricky
Buying favorites at 90¢ and up feels safe because you win most of the time. The catch is the payoff. At 93¢, a win pays about 7¢ and a loss costs 93¢, so one loss erases more than a dozen wins. Our 265-trade results write-up shows what that looks like in practice: a 94% hit rate that produced only a thin profit after fees.
Common mistakes
- Chasing every window. A new market every 15 minutes doesn't mean a good trade every 15 minutes.
- Ignoring the spread. If the best ask is 4¢ above the best bid, crossing it costs you before the market moves at all.
- Trading the last seconds blind. The book can thin out right before settlement. Fills you expected may not be there.
- Judging by win rate. Profit after fees is the only scoreboard that matters.
Doing it every round
Watching 19 markets, four rounds an hour, and redoing this math each time is a lot. That's the job DeskBot for Kalshi was built for: it reads the strike, the time left and the order book on every 15-minute market, adds the fee, and only trades your account when your rules say the price clears break-even. Everything it skips gets a written reason too. It's $19.99/month, and you can cancel anytime.
Educational content, not financial advice. Trading event contracts can lose money. DeskBot is independent software and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Kalshi. Market details and fees can change; Kalshi's own rules and fee schedule are the source of truth.