This is the first weekly report built straight from DeskBot's live trading ledger. Every number below is a settled, real-money trade on Kalshi's 15-minute markets. Paper trades and positions still open are excluded. Live trading on this ledger started Thursday, October 8, so this week's numbers are also the all-time live numbers so far. There were no live trades Monday through Wednesday.
The week in numbers
| Metric | Oct 5–11 (all-time live) |
|---|---|
| Settled live trades | 347 |
| Wins / losses | 328 / 19 |
| Win rate | 94.5% |
| Net P&L (after fees) | +$78.79 |
| Average entry price | 92.1¢ |
| Average win | +$1.03 |
| Average loss | −$13.68 |
| Best single win | +$1.83 (ETH, bought at 87¢) |
| Worst single loss | −$14.23 (SOL, bought at 94.5¢) |
Each trade was 15 contracts. The win rate looks high, but it's only half the story. The size of a loss compared with the size of a win is the other half.
By market
| Market | Trades | Wins | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| XRP | 74 | 70 | +$15.94 |
| ETH | 70 | 68 | +$48.94 |
| SOL | 69 | 63 | −$20.58 |
| BTC | 53 | 51 | +$33.64 |
| ZEC | 27 | 26 | +$10.37 |
| NEAR | 24 | 23 | +$7.19 |
| HYPE | 10 | 8 | −$20.77 |
| DOGE | 8 | 7 | −$7.65 |
| BNB | 4 | 4 | +$3.83 |
| EURUSD | 3 | 3 | +$3.09 |
| NATGAS | 2 | 2 | +$1.68 |
| COPPER | 1 | 1 | +$0.98 |
| SILVER | 1 | 1 | +$1.12 |
| WTI | 1 | 1 | +$1.00 |
SOL won 63 of 69 trades and still lost money. HYPE won 8 of 10 and lost money. The markets with only one to four trades are too small a sample to mean anything yet.
Best and worst days
| Day (ET) | Trades | Wins | Losses | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct 8 | 120 | 108 | 12 | −$51.64 |
| Fri, Oct 9 | 112 | 109 | 3 | +$70.72 |
| Sat, Oct 10 | 65 | 63 | 2 | +$31.79 |
| Sun, Oct 11* | 50 | 48 | 2 | +$27.91 |
*Sunday covers trades settled through about 7:30 PM ET.
The worst day was the first one. On Thursday the bot won 108 trades and still finished down $51.64, because 12 losses at around $13–14 each wiped out the wins. Friday was the best day: 109 wins against only 3 losses, for +$70.72. Over four days, the difference between a red day and a green one came down to a handful of losing trades.
Biggest losses and what they mean
- −$14.23: SOL, bought at 94.5¢ (Fri, Oct 9)
- −$14.09: DOGE, bought at 93.5¢ (Sat, Oct 10)
- −$14.01: HYPE, bought at 92.9¢ (Thu, Oct 8)
- −$13.99: BTC, bought at 92.8¢ (Thu, Oct 8)
- −$13.88: SOL, bought at 92.0¢ (Thu, Oct 8)
This is how buying contracts at around 90¢ or more works. When one of these contracts settles the right way, it earns a few cents per contract after fees, which came to about $1.03 per 15-contract trade this week. When it settles the wrong way, the whole stake is lost. This week the average loss was about 13 times the average win.
That gives a simple break-even test. With wins of $1.03 and losses of $13.68, the bot has to win about 93% of its trades just to break even. It won 94.5%. That margin is thin. A few extra losses in a week would erase the profit, and Thursday showed that it can happen within a single day. A 94% win rate doesn't mean much on its own. What matters is whether it stays above break-even over many more trades than this.
What changed / what's next
This report covers DeskBot's first four days of live trading, so there's no earlier week to compare against. We aren't announcing strategy changes here. When the bot's settings or approach change, we'll say so in the report that covers them. Next week's report will add the new trades to the running totals, so each week's numbers can be compared with the full live record as the sample grows.
The full trade history lives on the results page, and you can watch the bot's activity on the live page.
Try DeskBot
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Past results don't predict future results; trading involves risk and you can lose money.
DeskBot is independent software, not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.