Data pulled from Kalshi's public API on October 27, 2026. Every number below can be rebuilt from the same endpoint; the method is at the end.
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Kalshi lists 15-minute markets on Solana (series KXSOL15M) and XRP (series KXXRP15M) next to its Bitcoin and Ethereum ones. Each asks the same question four times an hour: will the coin's price at the end of the window be at least where it was at the start? We downloaded the last 3,000 settled markets for each coin, September 25 to October 27, 2026, plus the 3,000 Bitcoin markets that settled in the same windows, and looked at the questions people ask about the smaller coins: are they still coin flips, how big are the moves, how often do they tie, and how often do they just follow Bitcoin?
Short version: SOL settled Yes 49.5% of the time and XRP 50.3%. XRP closed exactly on its target 51 times (1.7% of all windows), and every one of those settled Yes, which is a rule worth knowing before you automate anything. Both coins settled on the same side as Bitcoin about 78–79% of the time. None of this is a trading signal on its own.
How the SOL and XRP 15-minute markets settle
The rules published on each market say it resolves Yes if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' real-time index for the coin (named SOLUSDRTI and XRPUSDRTI in the rules) before the window closes is at least the same sixty-second average before the window opened. The opening average is the market's target. The Kalshi API lists CF Benchmarks as the settlement source for both series.
Two real examples from October 26:
- SOL, 11:45 PM–12:00 AM ET: target $100.1693, closing average $100.0097. Settled No by about 16 cents.
- XRP, 4:00–4:15 PM ET: target $1.2930, closing average $1.2930. A tie, so it settled Yes.
New to the format? Start with Kalshi's ETH, SOL and XRP 15-minute markets explained and how Kalshi markets settle.
Result 1: both coins are close to 50/50
| SOL (KXSOL15M) | XRP (KXXRP15M) | |
|---|---|---|
| Settled markets | 3,000 | 3,000 |
| Settled Yes | 1,484 (49.5%) | 1,509 (50.3%) |
| Exact ties (all Yes) | 1 | 51 |
| Price over the month | ~$119.50 → ~$100.01 | ~$1.583 → ~$1.298 |
Both coins fell by roughly 16–18% over the month, yet their 15-minute outcomes stayed balanced. A trend that lasts weeks is spread over thousands of windows, and most single windows are decided by noise.
Result 2: XRP ties 1.7% of the time, and ties settle Yes
This is the finding that matters most for anyone writing their own bot. The closing averages for XRP in the API are reported to four decimal places (a hundredth of a cent). XRP trades near $1.30, so a typical 15-minute move is only a few hundredths of a cent, and the closing average lands exactly on the target surprisingly often: 51 times in 3,000 windows. Because the rule says "at least", all 51 settled Yes.
Two consequences:
- XRP's 50.3% Yes rate includes those ties. Without them, the price finished strictly higher only 48.6% of the time. The tie rule adds about 1.7 points to the Yes side.
- Any code that calculates a live "winning side" with a strict greater-than test will mark these windows as No. On XRP that is wrong about once every 60 windows, which is about 1.5 times a day.
Solana, near $100, tied once. Ethereum tied six times in the same month and Bitcoin not at all (see our Ethereum results and Bitcoin results). The lower the price relative to the reporting precision, the more ties.
Result 3: the smaller coins move about 1.7–1.8 times as much as Bitcoin
- SOL's median gap between the closing average and the target was $0.148, or 0.134% of the price.
- XRP's median gap was $0.0019 (about a fifth of a cent), or 0.130%.
- Bitcoin's median move in the same windows was 0.072%. Window by window, the median ratio of SOL's move to Bitcoin's was 1.80, and XRP's was 1.73.
- For both coins, 39.4% of windows finished within 0.1% of the target, and about 6% moved more than 0.5%.
Bigger moves cut both ways. A Yes position on SOL is more likely to have a clear answer by the end of the window than one on Bitcoin, but a lead halfway through can also disappear faster. Volatility tells you how much risk a contract carries, not which side to take.
Result 4: they follow Bitcoin about 78% of the time
We matched every SOL and XRP market to the Bitcoin market with the same close time.
- SOL settled on the same side as Bitcoin in 2,372 of 3,000 windows (79.1%). XRP did in 2,331 (77.7%).
- In the 198 windows where Bitcoin moved more than 0.3%, both coins settled the same way as Bitcoin 196 times.
- In the 1,169 windows where Bitcoin moved less than 0.05%, SOL agreed 61.7% of the time and XRP 60.0%.
- SOL and XRP agreed with each other in 80.2% of windows. All three (BTC, SOL, XRP) settled the same way in 2,055 windows, or 68.5%.
The practical point is about risk, not prediction. Holding Yes on Bitcoin, Solana and XRP in the same window is not three independent positions. When the crypto market makes a real move, they settle together. They split mainly in quiet windows, where each is close to a coin flip anyway. If you set a daily loss limit, count same-window positions across coins as one larger position.
Result 5: streaks match chance
- A window repeated the previous result 48.6% of the time on SOL and 48.9% on XRP.
- SOL had 1,541 runs (unbroken sequences of the same result) and XRP 1,533. A fair coin over 3,000 flips produces about 1,500. Single results, pairs and triples came in close to the halving pattern chance predicts (SOL: 791, 382, 191; XRP: 759, 389, 205; chance: about 750, 375, 188).
- After three Yes in a row, the next SOL window was Yes 48.0% of the time (352 cases); after three No, it was No 48.2% (357 cases). XRP: 42.9% and 46.1%.
- XRP continued a five-Yes streak only 27.3% of the time, but that is 55 cases. That is too few to tell apart from luck, and the five-No case (73 cases) continued 43.8%.
- The longest runs were 12 No in a row on SOL, ending at 9:00 AM ET on October 8, and 9 No in a row on XRP, ending at 9:15 AM ET on October 17.
Result 6: the morning moves most
Windows grouped by the Eastern hour in which they opened. "Median move" is the distance from the target as a percent of price.
| Hour opened (ET) | SOL Yes | SOL median move | XRP Yes | XRP median move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12–3 AM | 49.4% | 0.131% | 54.2% | 0.121% |
| 4–7 AM | 50.0% | 0.128% | 50.2% | 0.130% |
| 8 AM | 48.4% | 0.136% | 48.4% | 0.118% |
| 9 AM | 48.4% | 0.164% | 46.0% | 0.172% |
| 10 AM | 46.9% | 0.232% | 49.2% | 0.234% |
| 11 AM | 49.2% | 0.201% | 50.8% | 0.206% |
| 12–3 PM | 48.0% | 0.141% | 49.6% | 0.139% |
| 4–7 PM | 50.8% | 0.112% | 49.0% | 0.103% |
| 8–11 PM | 50.4% | 0.128% | 50.4% | 0.128% |
The 10–11 AM ET windows, just after the U.S. stock market opens, moved roughly twice as far as the quietest hours (7 PM for SOL, 4 PM for XRP, both about 0.095%). Weekends were quieter: SOL's median weekend move was 0.102% against 0.148% on weekdays, and XRP's was 0.100% against 0.152%.
The Yes rates by hour mostly sit between 46% and 51%. XRP's 54.2% in the 12–3 AM block (480 markets) is the largest gap from 50%, and with nine groups per coin you should expect one to look unusual by chance. We do not treat it as an edge.
What this means for fees and breakeven
Kalshi's fee rounding documentation shows the trade fee on a fill as a model fee, rounded up to six decimals, plus a rounding adjustment to your balance precision. Its worked example uses a model fee of $0.00363825 on a 5.5¢ buy, which is 0.07 × 0.055 × 0.945, the taker formula 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per contract. Both KXSOL15M and KXXRP15M are listed in the API with fee type "quadratic" and multiplier 1.
At 50¢ that is 1.75¢ per contract, so a 50¢ contract has to win about 51.75% of the time just to break even, before slippage. Neither coin's Yes or No rate cleared that this month. Buying one side at a fair price every window is a slow way to pay fees. The full table by price is in Kalshi fees explained and the break-even calculator.
Limits of this data
- It covers about one month in which both coins fell. Volatility changes, and so do the hours that matter.
- It uses settlement data only, not the prices contracts traded at during each window. What a trader could actually have paid is a separate question.
- It is not a strategy. "XRP ties often" or "SOL follows BTC" does not tell you which side to take, or at what price.
How we got the numbers (rebuild it yourself)
Kalshi's market data endpoints are public; no account or API key is needed to read settled markets. We requested GET https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXSOL15M&status=settled&limit=1000, followed the cursor for three pages, and did the same for KXXRP15M and KXBTC15M, waiting a few seconds between requests to stay well inside the rate limits. For each market we used result, close_time, floor_strike (the target) and expiration_value (the closing average). "Move" is the absolute difference between the last two, and a tie is where they are equal. Coins were paired by identical close_time. Hours are Eastern time. The sample runs from the window closing September 25, 2026, 10:15 AM ET to the window closing October 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. More on the endpoints in our Kalshi historical data API guide.
How often do Kalshi's Solana and XRP 15-minute markets settle Yes?
In the 3,000 markets per coin that settled between September 25 and October 27, 2026, SOL settled Yes 1,484 times (49.5%) and XRP 1,509 times (50.3%).
What happens if XRP closes exactly on the target?
It settles Yes, because the rules require the closing sixty-second average to be at least the opening average. XRP did this 51 times in 3,000 windows (1.7%), and all 51 settled Yes. Solana tied once.
Do SOL and XRP follow Bitcoin on Kalshi?
Mostly. SOL settled on the same side as the matching Bitcoin market 79.1% of the time and XRP 77.7%. When Bitcoin moved more than 0.3% in a window, both agreed with it in 196 of 198 cases.
How big are the moves in Kalshi's SOL and XRP 15-minute markets?
The median gap between the closing average and the target was 0.134% for SOL ($0.148) and 0.130% for XRP ($0.0019), roughly 1.7 to 1.8 times Bitcoin's move in the same windows.
What time do SOL and XRP move most?
Windows opening at 10 and 11 AM Eastern had the largest median moves (about 0.20%–0.23%), roughly twice the quietest hours. Weekend moves were about two-thirds of weekday moves.
Is there a winning pattern in this data?
Not one this data can show. Yes rates were close to 50%, streaks matched chance, and a 50¢ contract needs about a 51.75% win rate to cover the taker fee. Trading can lose money.
Is DeskBot affiliated with Kalshi?
No. DeskBot is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by Kalshi.
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